cEDH Goldfish Simulator

Test a target card by turn 1–6

Import a deck above, pick one or more target cards and a zone, set how many turns you are willing to look, then run the simulation. Add several targets to test an "any of these" line - for example Rhystic Study, Mystic Remora, or Esper Sentinel by turn two - and a run counts as a success as soon as any one of them hits. Every check runs a batch of goldfish simulations in your browser - 1,000 by default, or anywhere from 250 to 5,000 - so results stay fast and easy to compare across deck versions. Paste a public decklist link to use this as a Moxfield goldfish simulator for target-card timing, or load the sample deck to see the layout first.

Example: Can this deck cast Rhystic Study by turn two?

This tool measures target-card timing, not full multiplayer win rate. Choose a card, choose whether you care about casting it, holding it in hand, or seeing it through draws and tutor access, then run the simulation over your chosen number of games. The result is best read as a directional consistency check, useful for comparing two versions of a deck rather than proof that a line always works in a real pod. That makes it a practical target card probability tool for an MTG deck when raw draw odds are not the whole question.

Testing Rhystic Study by turn two

A common cEDH question is whether a deck can reliably deploy an early engine. Set the target card to Rhystic Study, set the zone to Cast, and choose turn two. The simulator checks whether the deck can produce the card and mana in time under the selected mulligan policy.

Run the same test after changing the mana base, fast mana package, or mulligan floor. If the hit rate barely changes, the swap probably did not improve the line you care about.

Testing tutor-heavy lines

For decks that rely on tutors, seen anywhere can be more useful than in hand. It asks whether the target card is naturally drawn or practically accessible through tutor effects. Use this mode when the real question is not whether you drew Ad Nauseam, but whether this hand found a path toward it by the turn you need it, the same way you would check tutor access by turn three in a real cEDH game.

What the zone setting means

Every check runs against one of three zones, and picking the right one changes what the result actually tells you.

• Cast. The simulator confirms it can pay for and cast the target card by the selected turn. This is the strictest setting because it depends on mana and sequencing, not just having the card.
• In hand. The card is still sitting in hand at the end of the selected turn. Use this to check whether a hand can hold up a payoff or interaction piece instead of needing to deploy it immediately.
• Seen anywhere. The loosest setting. It counts opening hands, natural draws, and tutor access, so it works like an MTG opening hand simulator that also tracks whether tutors found the card at all.

How the mulligan engine works

As a cEDH mulligan simulator, this tool models the London mulligan and stops mulliganing once a hand clears the policy you selected. Policy is the calmer, more realistic default: it keeps hands that meet ordinary standards for lands and action. Oracle pushes harder, searching more aggressively for a strong opener, which is useful for stress-testing whether a result depends on unusually generous keeps.

Minimum keep size sets the smallest hand the simulator is allowed to keep before it stops mulliganing. Raising it forces the simulator to demand a better hand even at the cost of card disadvantage, which is a fast way to see whether a target card's hit rate depends on going all the way down to a risky four or five card keep.

Goldfish simulator vs hypergeometric calculator

A hypergeometric calculator answers raw draw probability. This simulator answers a more table-like question: after mulligans, draw steps, simplified sequencing, mana deployment, and tutor access, how often does the target card become available by a chosen turn? If you only need the raw odds of drawing a card by a certain number of cards seen, the Hypergeometric Calculator is faster. If you need to know whether the deck can actually cast, hold, or find that card under mulligan pressure, use this Commander goldfish simulator instead.

What this simulation does not model

Goldfishing does not model opponents, interaction, table politics, stax pieces, silence windows, or matchup-specific decisions. Treat the result as a consistency signal. If the simulator says a line is rare, the deck probably needs more redundancy. If it says a line is common, real games can still change the outcome.

The run also uses simplified sequencing and simplified tutor choices so it can stay client-side and finish quickly. If the target card is missing from the deck or fails to resolve during import, the result will not be reliable, so check the unresolved card list before trusting a run.